Level 6 · Lesson 3
Model 1:
Trend Continuation
The bread and butter of professional trading. BOS + pullback to OB/FVG. High probability, clear structure, repeatable edge.
First — Why This Matters
🔍 Surfing, Not Swimming
Model 1 is like surfing a wave, not swimming against it. You wait for the ocean (higher timeframe) to push a wave in your direction. You wait for the wave to form (BOS). Then you paddle into position (pullback to OB) and ride it. You never fight the current.
This is the model that professional prop traders use most. It is not glamorous. It does not catch tops or bottoms. But it has the highest probability of any SMC model because you are trading WITH the institutional flow, not against it.
🔎 REAL SCENARIO
In a 500-trade backtest across Gold and EUR/USD: Model 1 (trend continuation) achieved a 57% win rate with 1:2 average R:R during kill zone hours. The same setups outside kill zones dropped to 41% win rate. The model works — but only when ALL conditions are met.
01 — The Model Visualised
See the Full Lifecycle
Watch the trend continuation model play out step by step: structure forms, BOS fires, price pulls back to the OB, entry triggers, and the trade reaches target.
💡 The key insight: The entry is NOT at the BOS. It is at the pullback to the OB. The BOS tells you the trend is alive. The pullback gives you the discount entry. Patience between the BOS and the pullback IS the edge.
02 — The 5-Point Checklist
All 5 Must Be Green
Model 1 is a checklist, not a feeling. Watch each condition light up before the trade activates.
03 — The 7 Steps
Model 1 — Step by Step
Open each step to see the detail and the pro tip.
04 — Confluence Filters
Stack the Odds Further
The 7 steps are the minimum. These filters increase your probability.
05 — Checklist Simulator
Try It Yourself
Toggle each condition on/off. See how the trade decision changes when conditions are missing.
✗ DO NOT TRADE
0/5 conditions met. 5 missing — no trade.
06 — When NOT to Use Model 1
Know Your Boundaries
Model 1 is powerful but it is NOT a universal tool. It fails in specific conditions:
Ranging HTF: If the 4H/Daily is choppy with no clear HH/HL or LH/LL, there is no trend to continue. Model 1 becomes a coin flip.
After extended trend: After 5+ consecutive BOS moves, the trend is likely exhausting. Model 1 becomes lower probability. Look for divergence warnings.
Major news events: NFP, FOMC, CPI releases create unpredictable volatility. Existing structure gets destroyed. Wait for new structure to form after the event.
Conflicting timeframes: Daily bullish but 4H just made a lower low. When timeframes disagree, sit out until they realign.
💡 The Umbrella Analogy: Model 1 is like an umbrella — perfect for rain but useless in a hurricane. Know the weather before you bring it out.
07 — Real Trade Walkthrough
Gold Model 1 — Step by Step
Step 1: Gold Daily shows clear HH/HL structure. Price above 200 EMA. Bullish bias confirmed.
Step 2: Drop to 15M. A strong bullish BOS breaks the previous swing high at 2,340 with a full-body candle. Volume is 1.8x average.
Step 3: The last bearish candle before the BOS (the OB) sits at 2,328-2,332. An FVG also formed between 2,334-2,337.
Step 4: Price pulls back from 2,345 down to 2,331 — right into the OB zone. It is 09:45 GMT — London KZ active.
Step 5: A bullish engulfing candle forms at 2,331 with a lower wick that sweeps the OB low at 2,328 then closes above 2,333. Trigger confirmed.
Step 6: Stop at 2,325 (OB low 2,328 minus 3 pips). Risk = 8 pips from entry at 2,333.
Step 7: TP1 at 2,341 (1:1 R:R, previous high). TP2 at 2,349 (1:2 R:R). Move SL to breakeven after TP1.
Result: TP1 hit in 45 minutes. TP2 hit 2 hours later. Full 1:2 R:R captured.
08 — Common Mistakes
4 Model 1 Killers
09 — Cheat Sheet
Model 1 Quick Reference
HTF = Must show clear HH/HL (bull) or LH/LL (bear). No trend = no Model 1.
BOS = Entry TF break of structure in HTF direction. Confirmation, not entry.
OB/FVG = Mark the zone left behind by the BOS. This is your entry zone.
Pullback = Wait for price to return to the OB/FVG. Do NOT chase.
Trigger = Specific candle/action at the zone. Engulfing, wick rejection, LTF BOS, or RSI div.
Stop = Below OB low (longs) or above OB high (shorts) + buffer.
Target = TP1 at previous HH (1:1). TP2 at next liquidity pool (1:2+). BE after TP1.
10 — Test Your Understanding
Model 1 Decision Game
5 live scenarios. Make the right call at each stage of Model 1.
Gold 4H shows clear HH/HL structure (bullish). On the 15M chart, price just broke above the previous swing high with a strong impulse candle. The OB from the move is 20 pips below current price. What do you do?
11 — Knowledge Check
Final Quiz — 8 Questions
Question 1 of 8
What is the FIRST step in a Model 1 Trend Continuation trade?
Question 2 of 8
What does a Break of Structure (BOS) confirm in Model 1?
Question 3 of 8
Why do you wait for a pullback to the OB/FVG instead of entering at the BOS?
Question 4 of 8
What should you do if price slices through the OB without showing any rejection?
Question 5 of 8
Where should your stop loss be placed in a bullish Model 1 trade?
Question 6 of 8
Why is the Kill Zone filter important for Model 1?
Question 7 of 8
A Model 1 setup has a 55% win rate and 1:2 R:R. What is the expected value per £100 risked?
Question 8 of 8
What is the most common mistake traders make with Model 1?